Paolo Stefano Giudici

Professor of Statistics

Department of Economics and Management

University of Pavia

Tel. +39.0382.98.4351


Twitter: giudici_paolo



Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia, Via San Felice 7, 27100 Pavia, Italy


Twitter: @stateconomist

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RePEc page to download papers:

Facebook group: DATA SCIENCE


Short biography

Master's degree in Statistics from the University of Minnesota (1990),  Master's degree in Economics from Bocconi University (1989),   PhD in Statistics from the University of Trento  (1993). Post-doc researcher at the University of Bristol (1997-1998) and at Cambridge University (1999-2000).


Full Professor of Data Science and Statistics at the Department of Economics and Management of  the University of Pavia, where he has supervised about 150 Master's students and 12 Phd students. Most of them currently work in the financial industry, in IT consulting companies or as academic researchers.


Director of the University of Pavia Data Science laboratory (formerly Data Mining laboratory) which, since 2001, carries out  research and consulting projects, for leading institutions such as the European Union, the Italian Ministry of Research, Cariplo Foundation,  Intesa San Paolo, Unicredit, BancoBPM, UBI, MPS, Banca Popolare di Sondrio, Credito Valtellinese,  Accenture, KPMG, Mediaset, SAS Institute, Sky.


Board of Directors member of the Credito Valtellinese banking group;  Research fellow at the Bank for International Settlements;  Advisory Board member for the Blockchain Based Account Bank; Honorary member and President of the scientific committee of the Association  of the Italian Financial Industry Risk Managers.


Researcher author of about 200 scientific publications, among which a book on “Applied data mining” and 30 papers in A-level journals, with 2995 total citations and an h-index of 24 (see Google Scholar for the details). The corresponding research profile is that of a data scientist, focused on statistical modelling, especially in Bayesian analysis, Computational statistics, Graphical network models; and on machine learning applications, especially in Customer scoring, Operations quality and Credit risk measurement.


Selected list of publications


(2017) Paolo Giudici, Peter Sarlin, Alessandro Spelta. The interconnected nature of financial systems: direct and common exposures. Accepted in Journal of Banking and Finance.


(2017) Paolo Giudici, Laura Parisi. Sovereign risk in the Euro area: a multivariate stochastic process approach. Accepted in Quantitative Finance.


(2017) Raffaella Calabrese, Johan Elkink, Paolo Giudici. Measuring bank contagion using binary spatial regression models. Journal of the Operational Research Society,  1-9.


(2016) Paola Cerchiello, Paolo Giudici. Conditional graphical models for systemic risk estimation. Expert systems with applications. Vol. 43, pp. 165-174


(2016) Paolo Giudici, Alessandro Spelta. Graphical network models for international financial flows. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 34 (1), pp. 126-138.


(2015) Raffaella Calabrese, Paolo Giudici. Estimating bank default with generalised extreme value regression models. Journal of the Operational Research society (2015) , pp. 1-10. 


(2014) Paola Cerchiello, Paolo Giudici. On a statistical H-index. Scientometrics, 99 pp. 299-312. 


(2011)  (Silvia Figini, Paolo Giudici). Statistical merging of rating models, Journal of the operational research society, vol- 62, pp. 1067-1074.


(2011) (Viviana Calzati, Paolo Giudici, Eleonora Lorenzini) Territorial brands for tourism development: a statistical analysis on the Marche Region in Italy.  Annals of Tourism research vol. 38, n.2, 540-560


(2008) (Luciana Dalla Valle, Paolo Giudici). A Bayesian approach to estimate the Marginal loss distributions in operational Risk management. Computational Statistics and data analysis, 52, 3107-3127


(2003) (Paolo Giudici) Applied data mining: statistical methods for business and industry. Wiley, London. Chinese translation, 2005. Second edition (with Silvia Figini), 2009. Italian editions: Mc Graw Hill 2001, 2005.


(2003) (Steve Brooks, Paolo Giudici, Anne Philippe). Non parametric convergence assessment for MCMC model selection. Journal of computational and graphical statistics, vol. 12, n.1, pp.1-22


(2003) (Steve Brooks, Paolo Giudici, Gareth Roberts). Efficient construction of reversible jump MCMC proposal distributions (with discussion). Journal of The Royal Statistical Society, series B, vol. 1 (65), pp 3-55.


(2002) (Paolo Giudici, Gianluca Passerone) Data Mining of association structures to model consumer behaviour. Computational Statistics and data analysis, vol. 38, n.4,  pp 533-541


(2001) (Robert Castelo, Paolo Giudici) Association models for web mining. Data mining and Knowledge discovery, vol. 5, n.3, pp. 183-196


(2001) (Paolo Giudici, Elena Stanghellini) Bayesian Inference for graphical factor analysis models. Psychometrika, vol. 66, n.4, pp. 577-592


(2000) Paolo Giudici, Tobias Ryden, Pierre Vandekerkhove, 32). Likelihood-ratio tests for hidden Markov models. Biometrics,  vol. 56, pp. 742-747


(2000) (Steve Brooks, Paolo Giudici) MCMC Convergence Assessment via Two-way ANOVA. Journal of computational  and graphical statistics, vol. 9, pp. 266-273


(2000) (Paolo Giudici, Leo Knorr-Held, Gunter Rasser) Modelling categorical covariates in Bayesian disease mapping. Statistics in medicine, vol. 19, pp. 2579-2593.


(1999) (Paolo Giudici, Peter Green). Decomposable graphical gaussian model determination. Biometrika, vol. 86, n.4, pp 785-801. (1995) (Paolo Giudici) Bayes factors for zero partial covariances. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, vol. 46, n.3, pp. 161-174


Direction of funded research projects:

  1. Multivariate statistical models for risk assessment (MISURA - Miur Prin 2013-2016)
  2. Statistical models for advanced business intelligence applications (MUSING - UE VI  programme, 2006-2010);
  3. Multivariate models for the evaluation of academic quality and risks (Miur Prin 2009-2010);
  4. Statistical models for the web-based  evaluation of teaching quality (Miur CNVSU, 2009-2010);
  5. Data mining methods for small and medium enterprises (Miur FIRB 2006-2009); 
  6. Multivariate statistical methods for the evaluation of public utility services (Miur Prin 2007-2008).
  7. Statistical models for e-business” (Miur Prin 2005-2006).
  8. Technologies for an integrated promotion of the Valtellina district (Fondazione Cariplo, 2011-2013); 
  9. Technologies for Made in Italy (MISE: @abilita, 2010-2012);
  10. Technologies for the promotion of the Ancient Pieve di Mazzo (Fondazione Cariplo, 2006-2008);


Direction of scientific conferences:

Classification and Data analysis: Cagliari (2015), Pavia (2011); Operational Risk Management, Pavia (2007);  Statistical models for data mining: Ghislieri college, 2000, Borromeo college, 2001, 2003. Advanced research schools in data mining: Rome (2000); Lugano (2001).European Science Foundation workshops: Structural learning in graphical models,Tirano  (1998), Inference and Prediction in financial risk management, Tirano  (1999).

Invited lectures and talks:

University of Washington, Seattle (1997); Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge (1998); Siemens AG, Munich (1999); Trinity College, Dublin (2000); Max-Planck Institute for Physics, Munich (2001); Royal Statistical Society, London (2002); SAMSI Institute, Duke University (2003); University of Leuven (2003); University Rey Carlos III of Madrid (2003); ETH Politechnic of Zurich (2004); SAS Institute, Las Vegas (2005,2006); Barclays Bank, London (2006); Imperial College of London (2007); Swedish Statistical Society (2007); Science and Letters Accademy, Milan (2007); Credit research centre, Edinburgh (2008, 2013); Tunisian Statistical Society (2010); Academia Sinica, Taipei (2011); University of California at Berkeley (2012); EU Joint Research Centre, Ispra (2012); European Central Bank, Frankfurt (2014); Italian Parliament (2014, 2015); Canadian Statistical Society (2015); Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt (2015); Big data value Association, Den Haag (2016); Bank of International Settlements, Basel (2016); Bank of Italy (2016); Frankfurt School of Finance and Management (2017).