Paolo Stefano Giudici

Professor of Statistics

Department of Economics and Management

University of Pavia

Tel. +39.0382.98.4351


Twitter: giudici_paolo



Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia, Via San Felice 7, 27100 Pavia, Italy


Twitter: @stateconomist

Google scholar page to see papers:

RePEc page to download papers:


Short biography


Born in Sondrio (Italy, 1965). Master of Science in Economics, Bocconi University of Milan (1989); Master of Science in Statistics, University of Minnesota (1990); Ph.D. in Statistics, University of Trento (1993). Post-doc research periods at the University of Bristol (1996-1997), at the University of Cambridge (1998) and at the Fields Institute, Toronto (1999).

Full Professor of Statistics at the Department of Economics and Management of the University of Pavia (since 2007; previously Associate Professor, 2000-2006 and Assistant Professor, 1993-1999). Currently lecturer of Statistics (undergraduate level), Financial Risk Management (Masterís level), Big data analysis (PhD level).Supervisor of 145 Master of Science students in Economics and of 10 Phd students in Statistics and Economics. Most of them currently work in financial companies, consulting/IT companies or in the academia.


Board director of Credito Valtellinese banking group and, within the board, member of the risk committee(since 2010). Honorary member and President of the scientific committee of the Italian Financial risk management association (since 2013). Member of the group of advisory experts on big data for the Deutsche Bundesbank and for the Italian Statistical Institute (ISTAT).


Research profile

Author of 63 papers in internationally refereed statistical journals, three research books and about 120 further articles in books and conference proceedings, with 2637 total citations and an h-index of 24. While all publications can be found in Google Scholar or in RePEc, a selection of ten representative ones follows.


(2016) (Paolo Giudici, Laura Parisi). Corisk: measuring systemic risk through default probability contagion. Awarded as the best GARP risk management paper at the European Financial Management Conference, Basel.

(2016) (Paolo Giudici, Alessandro Spelta). Graphical network models for international financial flows. Journal of Economics and Business statistics, 34, 1, 128-138.

(2016) (Paola Cerchiello, Paolo Giudici). Conditional graphical models for systemic risk estimation. Expert systems with applications, 43, 165-174.

(2015) (Raffaella Calabrese, Paolo Giudici). Estimating bank default with generalised extreme value regression models. Journal of the Operational Research Society, pp. 1-10.

(2011) (Silvia Figini, Paolo Giudici). Statistical merging of rating models, Journal of the Operational research society, 62, pp. 1067-1074.

(2008) (Luciana Dalla Valle, Paolo Giudici). A Bayesian approach to estimate the marginal loss distributions in operational Risk management. Computational Statistics and data analysis, vol. 52, pp. 3107-3127

(2004) (Chiara Cornalba, Paolo Giudici) Statistical models for operational risk management. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its applications, vol. 338, n.1-2, pp.166-172

(2003) (Paolo Giudici) Applied data mining: statistical methods for business and industry, Wiley, London (Italian edition 2001, Chinese edition, 2005)

(2003) (Steve Brooks, Paolo Giudici, Gareth Roberts). Efficient construction of reversible jump MCMC proposal distributions (with discussion). Journal of The Royal Statistical Society, series B, vol. 65, pp 3-55.

(1999) (Paolo Giudici, Peter Green). Decomposable graphical gaussian model determination. Biometrika, vol. 86, n.4, pp 785-801.


Principal investigator of ten competitive research projects, with a total funding of about 1,450,000 euro, mostly employed to hire young researchers. Among them: MUSING (Multivariate semantic based business intelligence, VI framework EU programme, 2006-2010); MISURA (Multivariate statistical models for risk assessment, Italian Ministry of Research PRIN grant, 2013-2016); Technologies for an integrated promotion of the Valtellina district (Cariplo Foundation, 2010-2014).

Presenter of several invited talks and lectures. In particular, at the following Institutions: University of Washington, Seattle (1997); Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge (1998); Siemens AG, Munich (1999); Trinity College, Dublin (2000); Max-Planck Institute for Physics, Munich (2001); Royal Statistical Society, London (2002); SAMSI Institute, Duke University (2003); University of Leuven (2003); University Rey Carlos III of Madrid (2003); ETH, Politechnic of Zurich (2004); SAS Institute, Las Vegas (2005,2006); Barclays Bank, London (2006); Imperial College of London (2007); Swedish Statistical Society (2007); Science and Letters Accademy, Milan (2007); Credit research centre, Edinburgh (2008, 2013); Tunisian Statistical Society (2010); Academia Sinica, Taipei (2011); University of California at Berkeley (2012); EU Joint Research Centre, Ispra (2012); European Central Bank, Frankfurt (2014); Italian Parliament (2014, 2015); Canadian Statistical Society (2015); Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt (2015); Big data value Association, Den Haag (2016); Bank of International Settlements, Basel (2016).