937R. T. W.
Chaundy to Harrod, 8 April
describes, in reply to two notes by Harrod (not found), "what is
probability", presenting the point of view of the mathematician, the
physicist and the meaning in everyday's language. Chaundy explains
that it is assumed that events, about which we are sufficiently
ignorant, are considered as equally likely, and that this works well
enough in many physical phenomena. Continues at
- 1. Year not
specified. The cataloguer of the HP attributes these materials to
circa 1933, but neither the content of this nor the following
letter and note seem to confirm this supposition, nor are there
other documents suggesting that Harrod's interest in probability
(discussed for instance in 1956 in Foundations of Inductive Logic,
or while commenting on Keynes's Treatise on Probability in
Harrod's Life of Keynes in 1951) arose so early. Chaundy's
reference, in an example, to some Students of Christ Church (A. S.
Russell, R. M. Barrington-Ward, R. H. Dundas, K. G. Feiling, and
an unidentified fellow) only permits to restrict the range between
1924 and 1946.
- a. From
Compas, ALS, four pages, in HP IV-195-198/2.
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