839. J. M. Keynes to Harrod , 21 September 1938 [a]

[Replies to 837 [1] ]

Tilton, Firle, Lewes. #

21 September 1938

Tinbergen--Your letter of the 18th

If the other influences on investment are variable, it is logically impossible to discover by T[inbergen]'s method the comparative degree of its dependence on profit lagged. He has to assume that they are constant. In fact we know that they are very variable both in character and degree.

I complain that this sort of logical point is not first discussed--or even mentioned. Until it is, the whole thing is charlatanry in spite of T's admirable candour.

J. M. K.

  1. 1. Keynes sent Harrod a carbon copy of his own letter to Tinbergen dated 20 September 1938, indicating on top (in Keynes's handwriting): "RFH. For information. Please return T[inbergen]'s letter. JMK". Tinbergen's letter to Keynes of 12 September 1938 and Keynes's reply are published in Keynes's Collected Writings (1971-89), vol. XIV, pp. 291-95.
    1. a. ALI, one page, in HP II-82, marked «RFH» in Keynes's hand in the upper left corner. Copy AI in JMK CO/11/290. Printed in Keynes, Collected Writings, vol. XIV, p. 305. Reproduced by kind permission of the Provost and Scholars, King's College, Cambridge.


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